The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive,Three years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote and hybrid work are as popular as ever. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. 772 days 4 . This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? He has been endorsed by well-known political figures including Sens. How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Johnson has received his highest negatives ever (the share of voters who view him unfavorably) in Marquettes last four polls. The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. By Eli Yokley. Doug Jones (36) The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker,5 41.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs whether to run again, his embrace of Trump's anti-democratic campaign to overturn the election results already has angered some mainstream Republican allies, and is poised As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 52.5 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). In Marquettes polling, most voters including about one-third of Republicans are skeptical toward Johnsons statements about COVID. Senator Ron Johnson against his top challengers, which show Johnson a bit behind three of the four Democratic challengers, and a similar matchup of incumbent Democratic Gov. But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. Its based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 that its a good idea to think about politicians popularity in the context of their states partisanship. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). . Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. ", "It's not like we don't have enough jobs here in Wisconsin," he told reporters in February. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Sign-in to take full advantage of your membership, including an ad-free website and improved browsing experience. Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump since he . But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. Lt. Gov. We're pretty sure you're a member and you're definitely not signed in. Combining the four surveys that Marquette has done over the past nine months, 35% of registered voters view Johnson favorably and 44% view him unfavorably a net rating of minus 9. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Kelly, on the other hand, does have a brand distinct from the national Democratic Party, but its an open question whether she can get enough Kansas Republicans who approve of her to take the extra step and vote for her as well. A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term. I've done a really good job as Wisconsin's United States senator," he told Milwaukee television station WISN. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. But while Johnson is unpopular, few are ready to declare his chances dead on arrival as he revs up his third Senate campaign in a state Trump lost by just a sliver in 2020. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, Andrew Hitt, former chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, called Johnson a master at retail politics whose plain-spoken, calling it as he sees it approach appeals to Wisconsinites when leveraged appropriately. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Have questions? Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are all rated Toss-ups, while Sen. Maggie Hassan 's race in New Hampshire is . While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Doing this for the Senate, we get the following table of senators with the best and worst statewide brands: Senators net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. The gap between how Republicans and Democrats view him was large then, but its even larger now. Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. But that isnt likely to be enough in a state that produces such narrow margins of victory. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos, and the Trump-inspired GOP. Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. Faircloth's loss came in a year in which the President, Democrat Bill Clinton, had an approval rating in the 60s. Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Timmy! He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. Senator Ron Johnson's . WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . R+23. Senator, led by Lt. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. But he also stood to benefit from a difficult political climate for Democrats, reflected in President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings. Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Cant fix stupid or true believers. Partisan types. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. But Kleefisch did the best of the Republicans in thehead-to-head matchup against Evers, with 43% of the vote versus 47% for Evers. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who highlighted economic and educational issues to defeat his Democratic rival last year. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? . He does so despite woeful approval ratings among Wisconsin . She pointed to tax breaks he supported, that benefited big donors to his campaigns. . Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list not just Democrats. House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. ), Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions, though. . Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. When the dates . All Rights Reserved. Independent Sens. Meanwhile, Republican U.S. Right now, the Democrats are trying to steal this election blah, blah, blah!. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. Senators, behind Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania (36%) and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (33%), according to an April 2022 report from Morning Consult. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. This ad will close automatically in 15 seconds. But Democratic Gov. Announces Mary Ellen Stanek as Board Chairwoman and adds Dr. Joan Prince and Charles Harvey to Board of Directors, Tiffany Tardy Named New Executive Director of MPS Foundation, DWD Announces Appointments of Jeremy Simon as Assistant Deputy Secretary, Arielle Exner as Legislative Liaison. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS).